| Here's what one Doctor In Texas has to say | | | | the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on |
| about the swine flu in a conversation with me. | | | | epidemiological grounds, we know that there are |
| Marc is a medical Doctor down in the San Marcos | | | | more than 10 cases for each "confirmed" case |
| New Braunfields (Texas) area and sent this out. | | | | right now. |
| Marc is a very intelligent and "with it" guy, he | | | | - During the night, we crossed the threshold for |
| worked as a botanist for Pfizer in South | | | | the definition of a WHO, Phase 6 global pandemic. |
| America...then decided to become a doctor. I hope | | | | This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so |
| it helps answer some questions and it does have | | | | far. We are in uncharted territory. |
| some good suggestions for alternative | | | | - I expect President Obama will declare an |
| medications etc. | | | | emergency sometime in the next 72-96 hours. |
| "After I returned from a public health meeting | | | | This may not happen, but if it doesn't, I will be |
| yesterday with community leaders and school | | | | surprised. When this happens, all public gathering |
| officials in Comal County, Heather suggested I | | | | will be cancelled for 10 days. |
| send an update to everyone, because what we | | | | - I suggest all of us avoid public gatherings. |
| are hearing privately from the CDC and Health | | | | Outdoor activities are not as likely to lead to |
| Department is so different from what you are | | | | infection. It iscontained areas and close contact |
| hearing in the media. Some of you know some or | | | | that are the biggest risk. |
| maybe all of this, but I will just list what facts I | | | | - Tamiflu is running out. There is a national |
| know. | | | | stockpile, but it will have to be carefully managed, |
| - The virus is infectious for about 2 days prior to | | | | as it is notenough to treat the likely number of |
| symptom onset | | | | infections when this is full-blown. |
| - Virus sheds more than 7 days after symptom | | | | I don't think there is a big supply of Relenza, but I |
| onset (possibly as long as 9 days) (this is unusual) | | | | do not know those numbers. If I had to choose, I |
| - Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no | | | | would take Relenza, as I think it gets more drug |
| "herd immunity," so the "attack rate" isvery high. | | | | to the affected tissue than Tamiflu. |
| This is the percentage of people who come down | | | | - You should avoid going to the ER if you think |
| with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is | | | | you have been exposed or are symptomatic. ER's |
| exposed to this virus will become infected, though | | | | south of here are becoming overwhelmed - and I |
| not all will be symptomatc. That is much higher | | | | mean that - already. It is coming in waves, but |
| than seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The | | | | the waves are getting bigger. |
| "clinical attack rate" may be around 40-50%. This | | | | - It appears that this flu produces a distinctive |
| is the number of people who show symptoms. | | | | "hoarseness" in many victims. The symptoms, |
| This is a huge number. It is hard to convey | | | | ingeneral, match other flu's; namely, sore throat, |
| theseriousness of this. | | | | body aches, headache, cough, and fever. Some |
| - The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bad | | | | have all these symptoms, while others may have |
| here as in Mexico, and there are folks on | | | | only one or two. |
| ventilators here in the US, right now. | | | | - N-Acetyl-Cysteine - a nutritional supplement |
| This has not been in the media, but a 23 month | | | | available at the health food store or Wimberley |
| old near here is fighting for his life, and a pregnant | | | | Pharmacy, has been shown to prevent or lessen |
| woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for | | | | the severity of influenza. I suggest 1200mg, twice |
| her life. In Mexico, these folks might have died | | | | a day for adults, and 600mg twice a day in kids |
| already, but here in the US, folks are getting | | | | over 12. It would be hard to get kids under 12 to |
| Tamiflu or Relenza quickly, and we have ready | | | | take it, but you could try opening the capsules |
| access to ventilators. What this means is that | | | | and putting it on yogurt. For 40 pounds and up, |
| within a couple of weeks, regional hospitals will | | | | 300-600 mg twicea day, for less than 40 pounds, |
| likely become overwhelmed. | | | | half that. |
| - Some of the kids with positive cases in Comal | | | | - Oscillococinum, a homeopathic remedy, has been |
| County had more than 70 contacts before | | | | vindicated as quite effective in a large clinical trial |
| diagnosis. | | | | in Europe, with an H1N1 variant. You can buy this |
| - There are 10-25 times more actual cases (not | | | | at Hill Country Natural Foods, or the Wimberley |
| "possible" cases - actual), than what is | | | | Pharmacy. |
| beingreported in the media. | | | | I will try to keep everyone posted if I have any |
| The way they fudge on reporting this is that it | | | | new information. |
| takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from | | | | |